Having placed my faith in the New York Philharmonic and their planned tour of Pyongyang on Day Sixty, it was some relief to see that political diplomacy continues in parallel - and with some hope. The New York Times reports that President Bush today received a letter from Kim Jong-il, confirming that North Korea will decommission its nuclear weapons provided the US fulfills its promise to 'normalize relations'. It's clear both sides are dancing round each other a little, but the overall direction appears to be forwards, and this must be welcomed - the alternative trajectory, namely continued tension and possible escalation into conflict, is definitely to be avoided.
Friday, December 14, 2007
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2 comments:
Great news, as ever!
Is it just me, or do other people sense some epoch-shifting? It's as though the axis of evil is no more - Iran's no longer a threat, relations with North Korea are calming, and even endless bloodshed in Iraq seems to be clotting. The clash of civilisations in Afghanistan is moving towards an accomodation, and even on climate change there is now, finally, a deal of sorts. Once polar extremes are now much less distant and ideology is no longer such an all powerful force. Meanwhile, the long-running era of easy money is giving way to much harder, gloomier economics. It's as if the shoal of problems defined by 9/11 is moving on.
It's very human to notice patterns that don't really exist, but I do get a sense of deja vu from the late 1980s, when ideology last subsided with Khomeni's death, the demise of the New Right and the end of the Cold War. That time it led to greater economic worries and isolationism in the West, and nationalist wars in the Balkans and Caucasus; what will happen this time?
(Whatever comes, let's hope that the new sources of worry are accompanied by new Reasons to be Hopeful! :-)
It's great that discussions are progressing between the US and North Korea (and also between N and S Korea). And this is a real cause for hope that relations might improve.
But I don’t sense the global paradigm shift that diana suggests. It all seems just more of the same – but different. To take two of the examples she mentions, on Channel 4 news tonight, reporting on the British withdrawal of troops from Basra, it was stated that the area was in the control of gangs of Islamist fundamentalists who had murdered 50 women in the last 5 months for not wearing the hijab. It’s great for British families that “our lads” are coming home – but there is no sense in which this can be claimed as a victory, or that this part of the world is a safer place to live. Plus ca change...
In the same bulletin, there was a detailed report from Bali about the US delegation eventually being shamed into agreement with the world’s view on how to tackle climate change. The US delegation stonewalled, to boos; "if you're not willing to lead, please get out of the way" said the man from Papua New Guinea, to cheers. But this wasn’t a victory, said the man from Friends of the Earth, but a “roadmap without a destination” (ie without targets). I suppose we’ve got to hope it will be more efficacious than Kyoto.
But no, the only reason the polar extremes are closer is because the icecaps are melting, dangerously fast.
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